The best powerplay bowler should be saved for the fifth over

Opening the bowling is a status role; the wicket is far likelier when the batter has decided to accelerate.

Two overs of respect, then a look at the pitch, then the calculation. That is roughly how an opening batter thinks in a six-over powerplay, and it means the two most dangerous overs for him are not the first two, they are the ones where he decides that time is up and he must get on with it. Yet we hand the ball to the best seamer for over one, out of tradition and out of a rather touching belief that the honour is worth something.

The evidence for the shape is in the scoring pattern. Openers block or leave early because the ball is doing most, then accelerate around the fourth over, and by the fifth and sixth they are attempting shots that carry genuine risk while the field is still restricted. That is the moment you want a bowler capable of moving the ball a little and changing his pace. Instead he is often finishing his second over against a batter who is watchfully leaving everything outside off.

There is a swing objection, and it is the strongest one. If the ball is going to move in the air, it will move most in the first fifteen deliveries, and giving those to your fourth seamer wastes the only period where movement is guaranteed. In English conditions in May I would not argue with that for a second. On a dry surface under lights, where lateral movement is negligible from the first ball, the argument evaporates and the traditional order is pure habit.

The other thing the change buys is a matchup. Hold your best bowler and you can choose whether he faces the left-hander or the right-hander, whether he bowls to the aggressor or the anchor. Open with him and you get whoever happens to be on strike.

Captains resist because the opening bowler role carries prestige in the dressing room and the senior man expects it.

That is a human resources problem being solved on the field, at a cost of several runs an innings and the occasional wicket that never arrives.